Cloud Feedback (feat. Skillz FJ)
from Bright Future by Baba Brinkman
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about
The main variable causing the wide range in possible warming outcomes from a double of CO2 in the climate science literature is cloud feedback effects, which both drive warming and also respond to it.
We just need clouds to spill their secrets...
Further Reading:
• www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-low-end-climate-sensitivity-can-now-be-ruled-out
• www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/02/world-without-clouds-hardly-clear-climate-scientists-say
We just need clouds to spill their secrets...
Further Reading:
• www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-low-end-climate-sensitivity-can-now-be-ruled-out
• www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/02/world-without-clouds-hardly-clear-climate-scientists-say
lyrics
Rain your secrets down
Feelin’ that equanimity
Like, “Yeah, whatever will be will be”
But still get jittery considering
Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity
Riddle me this: how hot is it gonna get?
If CO2 levels end up doublin’?
Between 1.5 and 4.5 degrees of extra heat?
You gotta be kidding me
How you gonna plan for a three degree range?
Somewhere between mild fever and extreme pain?
Estimation of ECS
That’s the Holy Grail of the climate quest
The heat trap is set, but sensitivity
Depends on complex feedback effects
Like Planck’s Law, it says: “The hotter it gets
The more radiation a body emits”
That’s a negative feedback, hey that’s great
Coolin’ us off like Lapse Rate change
But the hotter it gets, the more liquid evaporates
And that just jacks up the pace
‘Cause water vapor is a greenhouse gas
That doubles the carbon impact
But whether that final measure goes up or down
Is mostly down to little fluffy clouds
Little fluffy clouds
Spill your secrets out
High wispy clouds
Wrap us in your shroud
Low wavy clouds
Long, dark, and round
Rain your secrets down
Clouds, condensation on aerosols
When you’re talkin’ feedback they’re involved
Bounce sunlight back like a parasol
There’s a real puzzle in there to solve
Does a cloud heat the planet up, or cool it?
Depends on the height and thickness through it
Plus the light reflected like a mirror
Blanket-like high-altitude cirrus
Absorb more heat than they bounce back
Damn, that fixed anvil temperature’s FAT
Warm it up and the clouds move up
Positive feedback heat trap booster
What about low clouds though, in the tropics?
Endless flat vistas to get lost in
They look vast and voluminous now
But those stratocumulus clouds are newly in doubt
In fact, a new model found
That burning enough CO2 from the ground
Can break them up into cumulus clouds
And that’s gonna stop them from cooling us down
Plus, once you bust them up into pieces
It’s tough to go back, ‘cause hysteresis
The past is present, it's a sequence
We just need clouds to spill their secrets
Little fluffy clouds
Spill your secrets out
High wispy clouds
Wrap us in your shroud
Low wavy clouds
Long, dark, and round
Rain your secrets down
Clouds, leavin’ models jammed up
Since 1970, what’s the answer?
Better science, y’all, that’s what
Add the feedbacks up, that’s “Lambda”
Clouds, are cooling the planet on average
But warming the atmosphere changes the balance
And tiny reshaping of feedback effects
Can have radiative impacts that are massive
And heating the planet is changing the clouds
We need to know how, we need a “Eureka”
To see how the clouds and convection entrain
And which is the swept-up and which is the sweeper
What’s the answer? That’s the wrong frame
Instead ask: “What’s the probability range?”
That feedback dampens or amplifies
And how much is the physics parameterized?
Multiple lines are converging to find
That the bottom is no longer 1.5
For ECS, it’s 2.3 degrees
With a 95% probability
Which means we’re not getting off cheap
I guess that “three degree range” got squeezed
By the gap in the clouds where the light struck
Revised up, so, time to wise up
Tick tick tick…
Time’s up
Little fluffy clouds
Spill your secrets out
High wispy clouds
Wrap us in your shroud
Low wavy clouds
Long, dark, and round
Rain your secrets down
Little fluffy clouds
Rain your secrets down
Feelin’ that equanimity
Like, “Yeah, whatever will be will be”
But still get jittery considering
Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity
Riddle me this: how hot is it gonna get?
If CO2 levels end up doublin’?
Between 1.5 and 4.5 degrees of extra heat?
You gotta be kidding me
How you gonna plan for a three degree range?
Somewhere between mild fever and extreme pain?
Estimation of ECS
That’s the Holy Grail of the climate quest
The heat trap is set, but sensitivity
Depends on complex feedback effects
Like Planck’s Law, it says: “The hotter it gets
The more radiation a body emits”
That’s a negative feedback, hey that’s great
Coolin’ us off like Lapse Rate change
But the hotter it gets, the more liquid evaporates
And that just jacks up the pace
‘Cause water vapor is a greenhouse gas
That doubles the carbon impact
But whether that final measure goes up or down
Is mostly down to little fluffy clouds
Little fluffy clouds
Spill your secrets out
High wispy clouds
Wrap us in your shroud
Low wavy clouds
Long, dark, and round
Rain your secrets down
Clouds, condensation on aerosols
When you’re talkin’ feedback they’re involved
Bounce sunlight back like a parasol
There’s a real puzzle in there to solve
Does a cloud heat the planet up, or cool it?
Depends on the height and thickness through it
Plus the light reflected like a mirror
Blanket-like high-altitude cirrus
Absorb more heat than they bounce back
Damn, that fixed anvil temperature’s FAT
Warm it up and the clouds move up
Positive feedback heat trap booster
What about low clouds though, in the tropics?
Endless flat vistas to get lost in
They look vast and voluminous now
But those stratocumulus clouds are newly in doubt
In fact, a new model found
That burning enough CO2 from the ground
Can break them up into cumulus clouds
And that’s gonna stop them from cooling us down
Plus, once you bust them up into pieces
It’s tough to go back, ‘cause hysteresis
The past is present, it's a sequence
We just need clouds to spill their secrets
Little fluffy clouds
Spill your secrets out
High wispy clouds
Wrap us in your shroud
Low wavy clouds
Long, dark, and round
Rain your secrets down
Clouds, leavin’ models jammed up
Since 1970, what’s the answer?
Better science, y’all, that’s what
Add the feedbacks up, that’s “Lambda”
Clouds, are cooling the planet on average
But warming the atmosphere changes the balance
And tiny reshaping of feedback effects
Can have radiative impacts that are massive
And heating the planet is changing the clouds
We need to know how, we need a “Eureka”
To see how the clouds and convection entrain
And which is the swept-up and which is the sweeper
What’s the answer? That’s the wrong frame
Instead ask: “What’s the probability range?”
That feedback dampens or amplifies
And how much is the physics parameterized?
Multiple lines are converging to find
That the bottom is no longer 1.5
For ECS, it’s 2.3 degrees
With a 95% probability
Which means we’re not getting off cheap
I guess that “three degree range” got squeezed
By the gap in the clouds where the light struck
Revised up, so, time to wise up
Tick tick tick…
Time’s up
Little fluffy clouds
Spill your secrets out
High wispy clouds
Wrap us in your shroud
Low wavy clouds
Long, dark, and round
Rain your secrets down
Little fluffy clouds
Rain your secrets down
credits
from Bright Future,
released May 28, 2021
Written by: D. Brinkman, T. Caruana, S. Taukave
Produced and Mixed by Tom Caruana
Guitar and Additional Percussion by Skillz FJ
Keys by Simon Kendall
Scientific Consultation by Professor Stefan Buehler
Made with Support from U of Hamburg Meteorological Institute
www.mi.uni-hamburg.de/en.html
Written by: D. Brinkman, T. Caruana, S. Taukave
Produced and Mixed by Tom Caruana
Guitar and Additional Percussion by Skillz FJ
Keys by Simon Kendall
Scientific Consultation by Professor Stefan Buehler
Made with Support from U of Hamburg Meteorological Institute
www.mi.uni-hamburg.de/en.html
license
all rights reserved
tags
about
Baba Brinkman New York, New York
Science rapper and inventor of several novel hip-hop variants. Canadian transplant to New York. Pathological optimist.
discography
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May 2023 -
May 2021 -
Jul 2019 -
Apr 2018